This has not been a good time for Ford (F 2.38%) stock; its price is down nearly 44% year to date as bad feelings have taken hold among analysts. And no wonder.
Ford expects its third-quarter inflation-related supplier costs to run $1 billion higher than expected. Meanwhile, the company is experiencing a higher-than-planned number of vehicles, largely high-margin trucks and SUVs, with missing components due to supply shortages, numbering an anticipated 40,000 to 45,000.
While Ford now expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the third quarter to be between $1.4 billion and $1.7 billion, the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker expects 2022 EBIT of anywhere from $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion. The company expects to generate revenue from the completion of the delayed vehicles, which the company expects to finish in the fourth quarter.
Several times before and after inhabiting the CEO's office in October 2020, Ford president Jim Farley has reorganized his executive lineup. In the same week the company announced its financial revisions, Ford announced yet another management overhaul. "Developing and scaling the next generation of electric and software-defined vehicles requires a different focus and mix of talent," Farley said in a statement.
Ford focuses on iconic names
But the decline in Ford's stock price opens an opportunity for a dividend-paying stock.
Consider its product plans.
Ford is shoring up its commercial business with the imminent release of updated F-250 through F-650 Super-Duty trucks, most of which are purchased by businesses, of which Ford has a 60% market share. And its new all-electric Ford Pro E-Transit commercial van, although mostly a European-market play, commands a 95% U.S. market share. Yes, its market share is expected to shrink with the onslaught of a number of electric van rivals, but Ford's head start should pay dividends here.
Ford also builds America's best-selling light-duty truck, the F-150, a position it's held for 45 years. Sales are down 12% this year due to supplier shortages, but its all-electric F-150 Lightning has already sold 2,296 copies in the first half of 2022. While that's less than Rivian's 3,600 R1Ts sold in the same period, the F-150 Lightning began production in May, so it does not reflect a full half-year's production.
Ford's midsize pickup, the Ranger, is expected to be redesigned for 2023, while the company's smallest pickup, the Maverick, is already sold out for 2023. There are also all-electric Explorer and Bronco Hybrid SUVs coming in 2024. And don't forget the redesigned Ford Mustangs, its most-recognized vehicle, and an iconic Halo vehicle.
Why it may be time to buy
Considering Ford's product plans, executives are taking a page from the Tesla (TSLA 8.22%) playbook.
While Teslas are solid EVs, they're not necessarily better than what's coming from other manufacturers. But Elon Musk has built an aura around Tesla that entices consumers to buy into it. Other automakers, such as Porsche, play this game too.
Ford management is slowly transforming Ford's lineup into one with iconic or beloved nameplates. Concentrating on fewer, well-known names gives the automaker a clearly defined character that brings added marketing muscle. It's why Ford's first EVs are the Mustang Mach-E and Ford F-150 Lightning, and not a Ford Escape. By concentrating its EV production on its most revered models, the company instantly builds an easily identifiable image for consumers that builds an enticing aura, like Tesla. Ford has consumers waiting for its EVs, while the Volkswagen (VWAGY 0.22%) all-electric ID.4 has failed to garner as much enthusiasm. If the automaker had launched the ID.Buzz or an all-electric Beetle, it might have fared far better. But it has learned, reviving the Scout brand in the U.S. for EVs.
Ford stock has taken a beating due to concerns about rising interest rates, skyrocketing inflation, continued chip shortages, and the impact on sales. The company's fundamental stronghold in trucks hasn't changed as it introduces a new line of Super Duty trucks, a mainstay of its commercial vehicle sales, as it increases its selection of EVs, mostly around iconic nameplates, which brings with it a clear brand image, similar to Tesla.
While the stock's decline in value may not be over, it's worth watching. The company's longer-term strategy remains solid and could represent a buying opportunity for those with a longer investment strategy.
Although competitors aren't sitting still, Ford remains a compelling long-term play for its adherence to its core business, one it knows well.