With a market cap near $3.2 billion, Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF -0.26%) isn't at risk of getting overlooked among its multi-state operator (MSO) peers. And, thanks to a history of diligently adding to its footprint rather than expanding unsustainably, it has a somewhat better track record of consistent (if narrow) profitability than most of the other large public businesses in the cannabis industry.
But if you're thinking about buying the stock soon, there are three more things that are worth knowing.
1. It can succeed without federal cannabis legalization ever occurring in the U.S.
Practically everyone knows that federal cannabis legalization or rescheduling policies would be a major catalyst for cannabis cultivators like Green Thumb. But national legalization is not the only pathway by which the company could provide its shareholders with a return.
It's true that the one-time addition of fresh revenue stemming from widespread legalization would lead to a windfall that would lift the shares by quite a bit, but it's also entirely possible for this business to continue making incremental additions to the top and bottom lines. Its trailing-12-month sales have risen by 62% during the past three years to more than $1 billion. Much of that growth was a result of opening stores in states that have legalized cannabis for recreational use by adults, and state-level legalization could keep the party going for quite some time.
And there's no rule that says that markets where only medicinal use is legal aren't lucrative. The company is opening a smattering of stores in Florida, which has only approved medicinal use, and more may be on the way as long as there's demand there.
2. Analysts are expecting its earnings growth to pick up after this year
Wall Street analysts are, on average, optimistic about Green Thumb increasng its earnings per share (EPS) during 2025 and 2026. In 2023, it reported normalized diluted EPS of $0.15, but by the end of 2026, the analysts' consensus forecast is that it will be reporting around $0.37. In other words, the expectation is that its earnings will more than double during the next two years, which is quite bullish.
Of course, there isn't any guarantee that the company will be able to make that happen.
But the more time that elapses with its products being marketed and sold, the more brand loyalty it could build with consumers, provided that it has matched its offerings to their preferences. As the value of its brands increases, it might even eventually enjoy a competitive advantage due to high levels of customer commitment.
And during the coming years, the average selling price of marijuana might start to recover a bit more from its crash of 2022. That would help to buoy earnings, especially if the business is able to invest in increasing its operational efficiency at the same time. So there's a solid chance that the analysts are right about where its bottom line is going.
3. It's already returning a small amount of capital to shareholders
While it doesn't pay a dividend, Green Thumb did return some capital to its shareholders via stock repurchases in 2023, and it plans to do so again this year. The board has authorized another $50 million share buyback. That won't send its shares flying by any means, but it could provide some support for the stock price.
In the future, when it's producing more than $4.9 million in free cash flow (FCF), as it did in 2022, it could add to the buyback program, which management seems open to doing. In the more distant future, after it has (hopefully) generated several years of strong FCF, it could even authorize a dividend like other consumer packaged goods businesses. But that will likely take years to happen, if it does at all, so don't count your cash flows before they hit your account.