SoFi Technologies (SOFI -2.41%) stock has been volatile this year. It made progress on a comeback last year, doubling in price, but it's down 19% year to date as we close in on the last quarter of 2024.
Let's get into what SoFi's all about, why investors have been disappointed, and whether or not it's a good idea to buy right now.
The right bank at the right time
SoFi started as a student loan cooperative, and as a young bank started by recent grads, it targets students and young professionals with a user interface that speaks their language. It was developed as an all-digital bank, and it offers high savings rates, low fees, and an easy-to-use platform that check the boxes for its young, digital-savvy clientele.
There are many things going right at SoFi. It's attracting hundreds of thousands of new customers and adding even more new products, and revenue is growing at double-digit rates.
Image source: SoFi.
SoFi acquired Pacific Bancorp in 2022 and got a bank charter, and it's been expanding its line of products and services. That helps to increase engagement among its membership and generate higher revenue as well as mitigate the risk of putting all of its business in lending. That's allowed it to stay in growth mode throughout the high-interest-rate environment, when lending is under pressure.
It's also leading to scale and profits. SoFi reported its third consecutive quarterly profit in the 2024 second quarter, and it's expecting to stay profitable. It raised guidance after the second quarter, and Wall Street analysts are expecting earnings per share of $0.10 in 2024 and $0.26 in 2025.
So what's the problem?
It's not the right time for any bank
SoFi is a fintech company. It's not your standard, established bank, with reliable cash flow and attractive dividends. It's still working its way toward those features. Its tech focus is leading to the strong growth it's been reporting, but the flip side of that is risk and volatility.
What's happening at SoFi is that the lending segment, which is the larger segment, has been reporting slow growth. It's also largely responsible for SoFi's new profits, and if growth is slowing down or decreasing, investors get worried.
Here's how it played out in the second quarter. Total revenue increased 20% year over year, and it posted a consolidated net profit of $17 million. Financial services and tech platform, its two nonlending segments, increased 46% year over year. Sounds fabulous.
Digging deeper, you'll notice that lending segment revenue increased only 3% year over year, and it still accounts for the bulk of revenue -- 55%. What's more, its contribution profit was $198 million, an 8% increase over last year. The other segments' combined contribution profit was only $86 million. For now, at least, as much as management talks up the strength of its expansion model, lending remains SoFi's bread and butter.
Has SoFi stock bottomed out?
SoFi stock has gone up and down this year as the market has found it difficult to price. There's so much good, but there are clear concerns. So far this year, the concerns have been winning out.
However, things might be starting to change. First and foremost, if interest rates start coming down, the lending segment should get a nice boost. As it is, even with the slowdown, there are encouraging results. Total loan products increased 19% over last year in the second quarter with a 22% increase in origination volume. As the housing industry rebounds, which could take a while, mortgages in particular should begin to accelerate.
The market is already sensing this, and SoFi stock is up 16% over the past month. If you have a strong risk tolerance, this looks like a good opportunity to buy shares on the dip; it isn't likely to last much longer. If you have even a small appetite for some risk, you might want to take a small position at this price.
