HP (HPQ -0.45%) wasn't exactly the belle of the stock market ball on Friday. Although the company had little of its own news to report that day, its shares were shaken by a new research note by an analyst. This led to an outflow of investors from the stock, leaving it nearly 4% down in price at market close. That was a notably more pronounced decline than the 0.1% dip of the S&P 500 index.
Too dependent on EPS-boosting stock buybacks
That analyst move was a recommendation downgrade enacted by Wamsi Mohan of influential Bank of America (BAC -0.47%). Well before market open on Wednesday, Mohan knocked his recommendation on HP down one peg, to neutral from his previous buy. He maintained his price target of $37 per share.
In his view, the veteran tech company's earnings-per-share (EPS) growth will come not from organic improvements in profitability but from stock repurchases that reduce the number of shares outstanding. Mohan feels that potential upside from PC sales, due to factors such as the inclusion of artificial intelligence (AI) functionalities in newer models, won't compensate for expected declines in the profit margins for printer products.
"Our sensitivity analysis suggests that it will be hard to drive material positive estimate revisions," he concluded in his analysis.
Not all is lost
Mohan added that several factors could provide a lift to HP's fundamentals if realized. Among these are a more robust PC refresh cycle, stronger-than-anticipated cost cutting derived from continued restructuring, and beneficial changes in corporate strategy coming from recently appointed CEO Karen Parkhill.
