It's time for the world's most valuable cruise line operator -- by market cap and enterprise value -- to offer up fresh financials. Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL -1.90%) will step up with its third-quarter report on Tuesday morning.
Expectations are high for the company with a fleet of 68 ships across five different brands. The shares hit an all-time high this month, more than quadrupling since the start of last year. This kind of run may make a stock susceptible to a stumble if the company doesn't deliver a blowout performance, but there are some pretty good reasons to expect a strong week from Royal Caribbean.
1. Making waves during earnings season
Royal Caribbean delivered another "beat and raise" performance three months ago, once again jacking up its full-year projections. Its guidance in July for the three months ending in September called for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) between $4.90 and $5.
Analysts have raised their profit targets to $5.03 a share, but it isn't problematic to see Wall Street pros perched above Royal Caribbean's own projections. For starters, Royal Caribbean based its expectations on fuel pricing, interest rates, and currency exchange rates at the time. Fuel prices and interest rates have inched lower over the past three months. The U.S. dollar index has been trending higher in recent weeks but is still lower than it was in July.
Momentum is also boosting the chances for an earnings beat on Tuesday. Royal Caribbean's net yields continue to outpace operating costs, and it's been leading to some pretty substantial cases of outperformance on the bottom line.
| Quarter | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | $1.55 | $1.82 | 17% |
| Q3 2023 | $3.46 | $3.85 | 11% |
| Q4 2023 | $1.13 | $1.25 | 11% |
| Q1 2024 | $1.33 | $1.77 | 33% |
| Q2 2024 | $2.75 | $3.21 | 17% |
Data source: Yahoo! Finance. EPS = earnings per share.
Royal Caribbean has posted double-digit percentage beats since it returned to profitability five months ago. The streak will eventually end at some point, but for now, the bullish trend is the friend of those long the cruise line operator.
Image source: Getty Images.
2. It was a good summer on the high seas
Royal Caribbean rival Carnival (CCL -2.26%) operates on a different fiscal calendar. Its third quarter ended in August, and it posted financial results at the end of September. Carnival saw its revenue and earnings per share rising 15% and 62%, respectively, docking ahead of analyst expectations on both ends of the income statement.
Carnival is often seen as the bellwether, given its larger fleet and revenue. Royal Caribbean is valued higher because it has historically delivered superior growth on stronger margins than its peers. A strong report out of Carnival bodes well for the fundamentally superior Royal Caribbean.
The future was bright coming out of Carnival's update last month. Customer deposits for future sailings at the end of the potent summer travel season are 7% higher than the record it set a year earlier. If Carnival is seeing improving demand, it would be a shock to see Royal Caribbean, with its stronger brand loyalty, not follow suit.
3. The stock is still cheaper than you think
A stock that has more than quadrupled since the start of 2023 might seem expensive, but maybe it's not. Royal Caribbean raised guidance in late July and sees it generating an adjusted profit of $11.35 to $11.45 per share. Analysts -- tired of coming up short -- have bumped their full-year models from $11.31 to $11.58 a share in adjusted net income over the past three months.
Royal Caribbean is now trading for 17 times this year's projected earnings and less than 15 times next year's target. Wall Street's Wile E. Coyote always seems to fall short of nabbing this Road Runner -- or Wave Runner, if you will.
Why should analysts finally be up to speed on the industry's booming reality? The class act of cruise line stocks is coasting, and the waters ahead look pretty inviting.
