There are multiple indications that the market looks frothy right now. It's trading at elevated valuations while there's still macroeconomic pressure, and when that's happened in the past, it precipitated a correction or even a crash.
Warren Buffett looks like he's preparing. He hasn't said anything about what he thinks is going on in the market right now, but he's been stockpiling cash at Berkshire Hathaway's highest levels ever, and he's been a net seller of stocks for several quarters. It's not hard to read between the lines.
There isn't any reason to become alarmed. First of all, the market could continue to climb without any incident. Historical norms can give you a sense of what could happen, but by no means can anyone predict the future. Even if anything were to happen, you should have a portfolio in place that can shield your investments in all kinds of markets and times of uncertainty. If you don't, now's the time to act.
Finally, if there does end up being some kind of correction, you should scoop up shares of excellent stocks that look expensive today. I recommend Shopify (SHOP -1.62%). Costco Wholesale (COST -1.72%), and Cava (CAVA -1.82%).
1. Shopify: High-growth e-commerce
There is so much to love about Shopify. It's the infrastructure that makes much of e-commerce run today, and it even has a newly formed partnership with Amazon, giving it broader exposure than the small and medium-sized businesses that form the backbone of its business.
Shopify went through a difficult period recently as it tried to build on some of its highest-ever growth and needed to reacclimate to slowing demand, but it's landed on its feet. It's back to profitable growth, and it's leaner and stronger. Revenue increased 26% year over year in the third quarter, and operating income more than doubled to $283 million.
Management is pulling several levers to keep up its growth, and it has many different growth drivers. One of its biggest markets is in growing internationally. It's rolling out features in different international markets, like Tap to Pay in Australia, the U.K., Germany, and other countries.
International merchant count increased 36% year over year in the quarter. Another area where it's shining is its fintech capabilities -- Shopify payments increased 31% year over year.
There are so many ways Shopify can keep growing, and it's benefiting from organic growth in e-commerce as customers continue to adopt it as a form of shopping. Shopify is also integrating more features with an omni model that joins physical retail with digital shopping, providing even greater opportunities.
There's really only one thing I don't like about Shopify: Its price. Shopify stock trades at a forward 1-year price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 71 and a price-to-sales ratio of 17. That's rich even for a top stock. If there's a market correction, it would be an excellent opportunity to grab shares.
2. Costco: The unbeatable membership model
Costco has been steadily beating the market for years. It has a proven membership model that's reliable and steady, and the company even pays a dividend.
The story just keeps getting better. In the 2024 fiscal fourth quarter (ended Sept. 1), traffic increased 5.6% over last year in the U.S. and 6.4% globally. Paid household members were up 7.3% to 72.1 million, with about half of those members under the age of 40. That's a young cohort to grow with Costco and keep up its growth.
Paid executive memberships, which cost double the standard version at $130, increased 9.6% over last year. Executive members accounted for 73.5% of sales in the third quarter, and more executive members mean greater loyalty and increased engagement.
Costco offers stable and steady growth. It isn't the hot stock to follow, but it has made some newsworthy moves over the past few months. The company issued a special dividend of $15 per share last year, its highest-ever payout, and it raised the price of the annual membership from $60 to $65 for a standard membership.
It's a no-brainer stock to have in your portfolio, but Costco stock is trading at its highest-ever levels at 58 times trailing 12-month earnings. It might be worth it to buy even at the current price if you have a long time horizon, but you should definitely buy it if the price goes down.
3. Cava: The new and exciting restaurant chain
Cava is a small but fast-growing restaurant chain that serves fast-casual fare with a Mediterranean flavor. It's been compared to Chipotle Mexican Grill, and considering that stock's meteoric rise over the past few years, it's not surprising that investors have piled into this stock trying to imitate the same gains.
It opened 11 stores in the third quarter for a total of only 352, but it's growing quickly. The combination of high growth and a long runway looks very enticing. Revenue increased 39% year over year in the quarter, driven both by the new stores and comparable sales growth of 18%. That's an excellent showing, especially in an economy that's still facing pressure. It implies that customers like what they're getting, and that Cava has a real, viable business.
It's also demonstrating healthy profitability. Average unit volume increased from $2.6 million last year to $2.8 million this year, and net income more than doubled to $18 million. It had a fabulous quarter all around, and Cava could be a star over the next few years.
However, Cava stock is already up 237% this year at this writing and trades at a P/E ratio of 315. That's more astronomical than many hot tech stocks, and there's a ton of growth built into that price. If the market corrects, it could be an excellent growth stock to add to your portfolio.