If you're looking for extreme bargain buys in the markets, you may want to go further than just searching for stocks that are trading near their 52-week lows. To find deeply discounted investment options, it may be worth considering stocks that are at multiyear lows. There is usually considerable risk with these types of stocks as they are often facing multiple headwinds. But it also means that for a contrarian investor who's betting on a turnaround, the upside can also be significant.
Two retail stocks which are currently underperforming the markets are Dollar General (DG 0.34%) and Kohl's Corporation (KSS -3.30%). As of Monday's close, their share prices have fallen by more than 40% since the start of the year. And they haven't been trading this low for multiple years. Is either one of these stocks worth adding to your portfolio today?
Dollar General
Shares of Dollar General haven't been this low since 2017. While the business benefited from a boom during the early stages of the pandemic when consumers were spending aggressively and the economy looked to be in great shape, things have changed drastically for the discount retailer in the past couple of years as inflation has weighed on its core customer.
The company has been able to continue growing its operations, but that is largely through opening more locations, with same-store sales often being in low single digits.
DG Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.
The company has often faced a lot of negative press relating to its working conditions and some stores even being unsafe for workers. When combined with slowing revenue growth, it paints a troubling picture for investors, which is why many have decided to simply steer clear of the stock altogether.
The good news is that the business has been posting profits, and it trades at a modest forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 based on analyst estimates of next year's earnings. Investors are compensated for the risk that comes with Dollar General, but whether the compensation is deep enough is a big question mark.
There is risk with Dollar General, but I do like it as a contrarian pick for a couple of reasons. The first is that over time, as interest rates come down, reduced costs for consumers can lead to greater discretionary income and more spending at Dollar General's stores. Second, the company has more than 20,000 stores; if it needed to, it could close many underperforming locations to improve profitability.
All hope isn't lost for Dollar General. There are still many levers the company can pull should management feel it needs to make drastic moves to turn things around. I think its stores still serve an important need for customers by offering them a wide range of products and reaching people in rural locations.
It could take some time, but for investors who are comfortable with the risk, this might be a stock worth buying and holding.
Kohl's Corporation
The situation is potentially more troubling for Kohl's, which recently reported disastrous numbers with both its sales and profits falling significantly. For the period ending Nov. 2, Kohl's reported $3.5 billion in sales, which declined 8.8% year over year. Net income of just $22 million was nearly one-third of the $59 million that Kohl's reported in profit in the prior-year period.
Shares of Kohl's are down on the results, but the reality is that it has been a downward trend for a while for this retail stock. But with the recent adversity, the stock has now fallen to levels it hasn't been at since the early days of the pandemic in 2020 when the markets as a whole plummeted in value.
The stock trades at an even greater discount than Dollar General, with a forward P/E of seven. It's also trading at just under half of its book value. There's a deep discount available here for investors who are willing to take on a big risk. But the danger is that analyst estimates could change over time, and the forward P/E multiple may become higher if analysts believe there are greater challenges ahead for Kohl's and that its earnings will worsen.
Management says it is taking "aggressive action" to help turn things around. Meanwhile, the company will have a new CEO when Ashley Buchanan takes over next month. This may also lead to a change in the company's direction.
Although Kohl's is a cheaper stock in terms of earnings, I think it's a riskier option than Dollar General since it relies more heavily on discretionary purchases. And with a new CEO taking over soon, I'd wait at least a couple of quarters to see what Kohl's strategy may look like in the new year before deciding whether the stock is worth the risk.
