Moderna's (MRNA 0.40%) wild success in the COVID-19 vaccine market has worn off. The company's revenue, earnings, and stock price have been moving in the wrong direction for the past three years, a period during which the biotech has lost 85% of its value.
Despite what it seems, though, Moderna has made clinical and regulatory progress. If that continues and the company's plans pan out, it could deliver excellent returns to investors who initiate positions now. Let's find out whether this scenario is realistic for Moderna.
The COVID-19 vaccine market is still alive
Though we are no longer in a state of extreme emergency, COVID-19 is still a problem. Thousands of people continue to get sick, become hospitalized, and die. That's especially the case with those who are at a higher risk from the disease, including seniors and people with some pre-existing conditions. So, there remains a market for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, although the demand has fallen off a cliff since 2021. In the third quarter, Moderna reported $1.9 billion in revenue, roughly flat compared to the year-ago period.
On the bottom line, the biotech reported net earnings per share of $0.03 compared to a net loss of $9.53 recorded in the year-ago period. Moderna's sales were almost entirely from Spikevax, its coronavirus vaccine. It also had a 40% share of the U.S. commercial coronavirus vaccine market. Moderna will likely remain a leader in this space for the next five years.
Looking at other opportunities
In March, Moderna earned approval for a vaccine for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), mRESVIA. In Q3, this product generated just $10 million in sales. That's not much, but Moderna has more tricks up its sleeves. In June, it reported positive phase 3 results for a combination COVID/flu vaccine. Moderna's late-stage pipeline also features candidates for the cytomegalovirus (CMV), a stand-alone flu candidate, a potential norovirus vaccine, and a personalized cancer vaccine.
Some of these products look promising. There are currently no approved vaccines for the CMV or the norovirus. Moderna's candidates could be the first or at least among the first. Furthermore, consider Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine, which it is developing in collaboration with Merck. In a phase 2b study in melanoma patients, this candidate, combined with Merck's cancer drug Keytruda, decreased the risk of disease recurrence or death by 49% and the risk of metastasis or death by 62% compared to Keytruda alone after 34.9 months of follow-up.
Moderna should release some data from its late-stage candidates through the next year. However, the company's pipeline extends beyond that. Moderna has several more programs in phase 1 and 2 studies. From cancer to Lyme disease to HIV, the company is going after many targets, including some very challenging ones. They won't all pan out. No biotech company has a 100% success rate. But Moderna could transform its lineup over the next five years.
Worth the risk?
Moderna's shares aren't far off from their 52-week low. And at these levels, my view is that the company is worth investing in. Sure, its coronavirus franchise is no longer as successful as it once was, but with the approval of newer products, including its combined COVID/flu vaccine, its RSV product, etc., Moderna's revenue growth will improve soon enough. Moreover, Moderna's success so far has proven the value of its platform. mRNA vaccines are faster to manufacture than traditional ones.
That's a significant advantage. And given the company's vast pipeline, we can expect many more successes. The market may have made a mistake by sending Moderna's shares to stratospheric heights back in 2020 and 2021, but it is undervaluing the company's prospects a bit too much now. That means there is plenty of upside potential for patient investors.
