ExxonMobil (XOM -0.01%) and the rest of the energy sector are down big in the past month as oil prices hover around their lowest levels in a year. But the company has plans to drive shareholder returns even at mediocre oil prices.
Here's why ExxonMobil is well-positioned to substantially grow its earnings and cash flow in the coming years and why it stands out as a compelling dividend stock to buy in 2025.
Image source: Getty Images.
A clear outline for future growth
On Dec. 11, ExxonMobil updated its corporate plan and extended its targets from 2027 out to 2030.
Between 2019 and the third quarter of 2024, ExxonMobil achieved $11 billion in structural cost savings, grew earnings and cash flow, lowered its greenhouse gas emissions, and returned $140 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. By 2030, the company expects to achieve an additional $7 billion in structural cost savings, bringing the total to $18 billion versus 2019.
In addition to oil and gas, ExxonMobil is investing heavily in low-carbon technologies like carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. The company believes that carbon capture can help it deliver lower emissions power for data centers with projects that are fully detached from the grid.
By 2030, ExxonMobil expects to grow annual cash flows by $30 billion compared to 2024 or by $50 billion since 2019, and earnings by $20 billion versus 2024 or $35 billion since 2019. These forecasts are based on $65 per barrel Brent crude oil prices and $3 per MMBtu Henry Hub natural gas prices. For context, Brent crude oil prices averaged $81.13 per barrel from January through November 2024, and Henry Hub gas prices averaged $2.12 per MMBtu during that period. Aside from 2020, 2024 has seen the lowest gas prices since 1998.
Between 2025 and 2030, ExxonMobil expects to generate $165 billion in surplus cash above its existing dividend, leaving plenty of room for sizable dividend raises and buybacks. The cash surplus is basically the margin of error ExxonMobil has compared to its target oil and gas prices. If prices hit a downturn, ExxonMobil can still afford to raise its dividend but may buy back less stock.
ExxonMobil said that at $55 per barrel Brent, it would expect to earn $110 billion in cash surplus. By comparison, if Brent prices average $85 during the forecast period, the surplus would be around $280 billion. ExxonMobil expects it can still fund its capital projects and its dividend even if Brent prices were just $35 through 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030 -- illustrating how far the company has come in optimizing its production portfolio.
The dividend is an integral part of the investment thesis for ExxonMobil. Despite ebbs and flows in the oil and gas industry, ExxonMobil has raised its dividend for 42 consecutive years. No matter what oil prices are doing, investors have been able to rely on ExxonMobil for a steady stream of passive income. ExxonMobil yields 3.7%, which is sizable compared to the S&P 500 yield of 1.2%.
Avoiding dependence on debt
ExxonMobil's corporate plan sets clear expectations for investors to hold the company accountable over the next five years. Most importantly, the plan is based on generating positive cash flow and doesn't rely on debt. ExxonMobil's balance sheet is in its best condition in a decade.
XOM Financial Debt to Equity (Quarterly) data by YCharts
As you can see in the chart, ExxonMobil has very little net debt on its balance sheet for a company of its size. Its financial debt-to-equity and debt-to-capital ratios are very low, indicating it isn't relying on debt to run its business. ExxonMobil used excess profits in recent years to help pay down debt.
Granted, it has ramped capital spending, but has emphasized investments that can contribute to high cash-flow generation. Projects that have a low cost of supply and higher returns, which ExxonMobil calls "advantaged assets," refer to the Permian Basin, Guyana, and its liquefied natural gas (LNG) portfolio. LNG is natural gas that is cooled and condensed into a liquid to export to buyers overseas.
ExxonMobil completed the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources earlier this year, which gave it significantly more Permian production. ExxonMobil now generates more than 50% of its production from advantaged assets, and expects to reach 60% for 2030 -- helping to drive down its cost of production. By focusing on advantaged assets, ExxonMobil can generate positive cash flow even at lower oil prices, which should help limit its leverage and maintain its financial health.
ExxonMobil is a passive income powerhouse
If ExxonMobil achieves its projected earnings growth, the company could be worth significantly more in the future than it is today. ExxonMobil is already an inexpensive stock -- with a 13.3 price-to-earnings ratio. And that's based on earnings during a period of fairly mediocre oil prices.
Oil and gas companies tend to command discounted valuations compared to the broader market due to the industry's volatility and the uncertain future of oil and gas in a low-carbon world. But ExxonMobil's corporate plan shows that the company doesn't need oil and gas prices to go up to make substantially higher earnings and cash flows over the medium term. It can then use excess profits to invest in new technologies to remain an energy titan even if global oil and gas consumption gradually declines over time.
Add it all up, and ExxonMobil stands out as arguably the most well-rounded oil and gas company to buy in 2025.
