There's no denying that 2024 has been a banner year for Nvidia (NVDA -2.89%). The company cemented its position as the gold standard for graphics processing units (GPUs) that underpin artificial intelligence (AI), and the future continues to look bright. Since the AI revolution kicked off in early 2023, the stock has gained more than 850%, with 182% gains this year alone.
But doesn't tell the entire story. Over the past six months, even as its business has continued to ramp up, Nvidia's stock price has stalled. Concerns about the future adoption of AI, the specter of competition, and a lofty valuation have sent some investors to the sidelines, wondering if the company's best days are behind it.
Let's look at what lies ahead for Nvidia and if the stock still represents a compelling opportunity for investors heading into the new year.
Image source: Getty Images.
Catalysts abound
There are a number of catalysts that could move Nvidia stock in the early part of 2025, so investors should mark their calendars.
CEO Jensen Huang is something of a rock star in the investing community. The popular chief executive tends to generate excitement that has the potential to move Nvidia's stock price whenever he makes public addresses. One such appearance is the opening of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), as Huang is scheduled to give the keynote address on Jan. 6.
Huang has his finger on the pulse of the technology industry and is expected to provide his views on the pace of AI adoption and the state of the technology in general. Perhaps more importantly, its likely he will also give an update on demand for Nvidia's Blackwell platform. The next-generation processor, which is purpose-built for AI applications, was scheduled to begin shipping earlier this month. Huang has previously described demand for the chips as "insane," so expectations are high, and any positive update will likely give the stock a boost.
In fact, Citi analyst Atif Malik put Nvidia on a "positive catalyst watch" ahead of Huang's appearance. The analyst maintains a buy rating and a price target of $175, which suggests potential upside of 25% compared to Tuesday's closing price. Malik believes an update on the sale of Blackwell and the potential for increasing margins could send the stock higher.
It's worth taking a moment to review investor concerns regarding Nvidia's margins. The company's gross profit margin hit an all-time high of 78.4% during its fiscal 2025 first quarter (ended Apr. 28). However, in the two quarters that followed, those margins slid to 75.1% and 74.6%. Management chalked those declines up to "inventory provisions" related to its upcoming Blackwell launch and is guiding for a gross profit margin of 73% in the current quarter. In some cases, declining profit margins can be a red flag over the longer term, but a decline over two quarters is too small a sample size for investors to be concerned -- particularly on the heels of a record-breaking performance in Q1 and an upcoming product launch.
The most significant potential catalyst on the horizon is Nvidia's fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter financial report, which is scheduled to be released on Feb. 26. Management is guiding for revenue of $37.5 billion, which would represent growth of about 70%, though Nvidia has a long history of issuing conservative guidance. For example, after issuing a forecast for 79% growth in Q3, Nvidia delivered growth of roughly 94%. If Blackwell shipments end up being more robust than expected -- and history suggests it could -- the company could blow past Wall Street's expectations, which could also push Nvidia stock higher.
Finally, investor fears that the adoption of AI could stall appear overblown. A study by "Big Four" accounting firm Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) estimates that AI has the potential to add as much as $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. In fact, the data suggests that as much as 45% of all economic gains during the period could be the result of product enhancements from AI, sparking consumer demand.
Should investors buy Nvidia before 2025?
There's one final reason investors should consider buying Nvidia stock before 2025 -- its valuation -- but that requires some context.
Early this year, when excitement regarding AI had reached a crescendo, Nvidia stock was selling for 83 times earnings. Over the course of the past year, however, that multiple has fallen steadily, and the stock is currently selling for 55 times earnings. While that might still seem expensive at first glance its worth putting into historical context. Over the past decade, Nvidia has had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 59, which shows the multiple is historically cheap.
Furthermore, Nvidia is expected to generate earnings per share (EPS) of $4.43 in fiscal 2026, according to Wall Street. That works out to just 32 times next year's expected sales, which is an appealing valuation for a company with such a sterling track record of growth.
Taken together, Huang's upcoming appearance at CES, the blockbuster potential for Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell AI processor, the potential for improving margins, a compelling valuation, and the company's pivotal role in recent advances suggest there's potential upside over the near term.
That said, investors looking to make a quick buck should exercise care. Any one of the aforementioned catalysts could go the other way, sending the stock lower. Here's the thing: If you believe, like I do, that AI has the potential to transform industries and that Nvidia is one of the principal beneficiaries of this trend -- then buy Nvidia stock and hang on for the wild ride to come.
