Looking to the past to predict the future in the stock market isn't always accurate, as companies are constantly changing alongside the broader market. However, it can be useful to see how a stock performed when it reached similar valuation or growth levels, especially with cyclical companies.
I recently did this with Meta Platforms (META -1.89%), and it revealed some incredible results I think investors must pay attention to heading into 2025.
Meta Platforms provides solid growth at a reasonable price
While most people wouldn't think of Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, as a cyclical business, it is. Meta derives nearly all its revenue from advertising, which ebbs and flows with business sentiment. If advertising clients think there will be significant consumer spending in the coming months, they'll advertise more heavily than they would if the economy were in a recession.
With Meta's revenue growing at a healthy pace, it's clear that advertisers believe consumers will maintain their spending levels. This is similar to 2019 through 2021 (besides a slight blip thanks to COVID).
META Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts. YoY = year over year.
Although the revenue growth rate was slightly higher in 2019 through 2021, the general sentiment and range of growth are about the same. Furthermore, the valuation looks similar on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis.
META PE Ratio data by YCharts. PE Ratio = price-to-earnings ratio.
So, Meta is growing and priced similarly to what it was from 2019 to 2021. How did it perform? Quite well.
Meta's stock saw massive gains over those three years, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had a solid 2025, as history favors Meta.
Meta is reasonably priced heading into 2025
With Meta's stock having a solid history to stand on when the stock was valued and growing revenue at a similar pace as in the past, investors are right to be excited about 2025. However, a few points need to be noted.
For 2025, Wall Street analysts expect Meta's revenue growth to be about 15%. This is notably slower than the 2019 to 2021 range, but it still shows strong growth, considering Meta is a huge company.
With Meta being a mature company, most investors focus on profit growth rather than revenue growth. That could take a hit in 2025, as management has already warned investors that there will be a "significant acceleration in infrastructure expense growth next year."
This is largely centered around its artificial intelligence (AI) investments, as it needs to continue building out computing power to capture market share in this important field. Still, Wall Street analysts expect 12% earnings-per-share (EPS) growth in 2025, so the increased spending won't affect its earnings too much.
Despite a slowdown in growth and increased spending, Meta Platforms is still one of the cheapest big tech stocks on the market. If you compare it to other "Magnificent Seven" stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla, Meta is the second-cheapest stock when valued using trailing or forward earnings.
However, that doesn't mean it's growing slowly, either. Meta's Q3 revenue growth was the second-fastest in the group, showcasing Meta's reasonable price for strong growth.
Although the setup for Meta isn't exactly the same as it was from 2019 to 2021, there are many similarities. Throw in that Meta is reasonably priced compared to many of its peers, and I think you have a recipe for a stock that can put up impressive returns in 2025. As a result, Meta is one of my best stocks to buy for 2025.
