The stock market has been surging over the last couple of years, as we enter the third year of the current bull market. The S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.16%) has surged by more than 65% since it bottomed out in October 2022, as of this writing, with the Nasdaq (^IXIC -0.06%) up by around 87% in that time.
Some investors, though, are worried about how long these good times will last. Just over one-third of U.S. investors are feeling "bearish" about the next six months, according to a January 2025 survey from the American Association of Individual Investors.
While there's no way to predict the future of the market, it can be helpful to see how long the average bull market lasts -- as well as what history has to say about what might be coming.
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Bull markets generally last far longer than bear markets
The good news is that, on average, bull markets tend to outlast bear markets. The average S&P 500 bull market between 1929 and 2023 has lasted 1,011 days, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group, while the average bear market has gone on for around 286 days.
Also, more recent bull markets are lasting longer. Three of the last 10 bull markets have gone on for at least 2,000 days, with eight lasting for more than 500 days. Among the 10 earliest bull markets starting in 1929, though, only two lasted longer than 200 days.
As of this writing, we're 820 days into the current bull market. This could suggest that we may have around six months left before the next slump, assuming this bull market is in line with the average. However, there's a major caveat here: The market can be incredibly unpredictable in the short term.
What does this say about the future?
Averages can be a helpful way to see roughly how long bull and bear markets tend to last, but they can't predict the future.
While the average bull market lasts around 1,000 days, some go on for far longer. For example, one of the more recent surges between 2009 and 2020 lasted for nearly 4,000 days. So there's always a chance that we could have several more years ahead of us before the next slump begins.
What is almost certain, though, is that the market will recover from whatever downturn it faces. Every single bear market in history has been followed by a bull market, and the longer you stay invested, the better your chances of seeing positive total returns.
In fact, if you were to invest in an S&P 500 index fund or ETF for just one year, there's a 27% chance you could see negative returns, according to data from investment management firm Capital Group. But if you were to hold your investment for 10 years, there's only a 6% chance of earning negative returns.
Protecting your portfolio against downturns
Rather than trying to predict the market's future, it's often safer to simply continue investing consistently no matter what stock prices do.
This strategy is called dollar-cost averaging, and it involves investing at regular intervals throughout the year regardless of how the market is performing. Sometimes, you'll invest at record-high prices. But other times, you can snag stocks at a steep discount. Over many years, those ups and downs should average each other out -- and you'll never need to worry about whether you're investing at the "right" or "wrong" time.
It's easy to get caught up in the market's short-term fluctuations, and if you're worried about a downturn looming, you're not alone. While nobody can predict what may happen over the coming months, investing consistently and keeping a long-term outlook can better protect your portfolio.
