Crude oil prices were relatively quiet last year. Brent oil, the global benchmark price, slipped 3%, closing the year at around $77 a barrel. Meanwhile, WTI, the U.S. oil price benchmark, ended the year right where it began at roughly $71 per barrel. Record production in the U.S. and weakness in China's economy kept the market balanced, keeping a lid on crude prices.
Most analysts expect more of the same in 2025, with the consensus that crude prices will remain in the $70s this year. Because of that, oil stocks can't rely on oil prices to pump up their share prices this year. They'll need other catalysts.
Two oil stocks with notable catalysts are ConocoPhillips (COP -0.30%) and Chevron (CVX 0.54%). That's one of the many reasons they've risen to the top of my buy list this year.
An acquisition-fueled boost
ConocoPhillips made a big splash last year. It acquired rival Marathon Oil in a $22.5 billion all-stock deal (which includes the assumption of $5.4 billion of debt) that closed in late November. The highly accretive transaction further deepened its portfolio in the lower 48 states, adding over 2 billion barrels of resources at an average cost of supply below $30 per barrel (WTI).
The company initially expected to capture over $500 million in cost and capital synergies within the first year of closing the deal. It now anticipates that number will be over $1 billion within the first 12 months. That will help boost its free cash flow even more.
ConocoPhillips plans to return a meaningful percentage of its growing cash flow to shareholders. It has already boosted its dividend by 34%. The company intends to deliver dividend growth in the top 25% of companies in the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.11%) in the future.
Meanwhile, it boosted its share repurchase rate from $5 billion annually to $7 billion. That has it on track to retire all the equity issued to acquire Marathon Oil within the next two to three years. ConocoPhillips's growing cash flow and cash returns should help give it the fuel to outperform its peers this year if oil prices continue to meander along in the $70-a-barrel range.
A potential massive catalyst ahead
Chevron has been working on closing a needle-moving deal of its own. The oil giant agreed to buy Hess in a $60 billion all-stock deal in October 2023. The transaction would significantly upgrade and diversify Chevron's already world-class portfolio. It would enhance and extend the company's production and free cash flow growth outlook into the 2030s, helping it more than double its free cash flow by 2027 (assuming $70 oil).
There's just one problem: Exxon believes the deal triggered a change of control clause relating to its joint development agreement with Hess and a third partner (China's CNOOC) in Guyana. The companies are engaged in arbitration, with a ruling expected later this year.
If Chevron wins, it will be able to close its acquisition of Hess, which would significantly enhance its already robust long-term growth profile. While the company may lose its arbitration case, there's reason to believe it will emerge victorious.
It's not solely buying Hess for its stake in Guyana. The acquisition would also bolster its U.S. onshore operations by adding the oil-rich resources of Bakken in North Dakota to its portfolio. In addition, it would add complementary positions in the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Asia. These additions would enable Chevron to upgrade its entire portfolio.
Those additional benefits are why I predict Chevron will close its megadeal for Hess this year, which would provide it with a big boost in 2025 and beyond.
Even if it loses, Chevron will be in a strong position. It expects to grow its free cash flow by more than 10% annually through 2027 (assuming Brent averages $60 a barrel), fueled by high-return capital investments into its existing resource portfolio. That will enable Chevron to continue increasing its dividend (which it has done every year for over three decades) and repurchase shares at the top end of its $10 billion to $20 billion annual target range.
The added fuel to outperform
ConocoPhillips has already closed its needle-moving deal, and Chevron should be able to wrap up its transaction this year. Those acquisitions should provide these oil stocks with a big boost in 2025. That's why they stand out as the top ones to buy this year.
