Tesla, one of the largest companies in the world with a market cap above $1 trillion, still remains a viable investment opportunity. But investors who correctly identify the next Tesla could stand to make the greatest gains investing in electric vehicle (EV) stocks.
Quite a few metrics suggest Lucid Group (LCID 1.34%) possibly being the diamond in the rough that you're looking for. The entire business is still valued below $10 billion, though it doesn't take much imagination to see the EV company one day being worth at least $100 billion. But before you jump in, make sure you understand two things.
Lucid Group clearly has a lot of room for growth
Despite a large sales increase since 2021, most of Lucid's growth journey remains ahead of it. That's mostly because EV sales in the U.S. remain just a sliver of overall car sales.
According to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Agency, just 7% of U.S. car sales are currently electric models. That's down from a peak of 8% in 2024, but still up considerably from 1% in 2018.
Where are EV sales going from here? Analyst expectations are all over the place, but nearly every prediction trends in the same direction: up.
S&P Global, for instance, believes that despite some struggles in 2024, the next few years should prove seismic for both EV production and demand. "The auto industry's transition to EVs is accelerating," a recent report by the organization says.
That report predicts 2026 will be a tipping point for EV demand, leading to 25% of cars sold in the U.S. to be electric by 2030. So if S&P Global is correct, EV sales should more than triple over the next five years.
In many ways, Lucid is in the right place at the right time. The failures of a long list of EV makers were largely attempts to compete in a world where demand was minimal -- below 1% of total car sales.
Today, EVs have a foothold in the market, and most people know someone who owns one, if they don't own one themselves. And as most forecasts predict, this foothold will only strengthen over time. No longer are we waiting for the EV market to take shape -- it's already here, with plenty of growth still ahead of it.
Lucid has done a commendable job keeping up with demand. Its sales grew by roughly 70% year over year last quarter after growing by around 90% the quarter before.
For 2024, analysts expect companywide sales to be $778 million. For this year, however, they predict a 118% increase in sales, reaching $1.69 billion.
Fueling this growth is its Air sedan, and its new Gravity SUV, which just began production a few months ago. These two models are priced between $70,000 and $100,000, depending on options.
So while the company can't tap the mass market yet, it has proved capable of producing high-end luxury models with enough buyer appeal to lead to more than $1 billion in sales in a single year.
RIVN revenue (TTM), data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.
Pay attention to this number on Feb. 25
Lucid is on a promising trajectory. It now has two luxury EV models in production, and its sales base is expected to grow significantly in 2025 alongside increasing industry demand for EVs overall, a trend that won't cease for potentially several decades. But there's one number I'll be paying close attention to on Feb. 25, the next time Lucid reports quarterly earnings: gross margins.
RIVN gross profit margin data by YCharts.
Due to Lucid's rapid sales growth, the market has assigned it a premium valuation of 10 times sales. Tesla, for example, trades closer to 14 times sales, while fellow EV maker Rivian trades at just 3.3 times sales.
There are many differences among these three companies, but perhaps the biggest is their varying ability to generate profits on each car they sell. Tesla has generated positive gross margins for over a decade. Rivian has struggled to achieve positive gross margins despite $5 billion in sales last year.
As a smaller competitor, Lucid gets the benefit of the doubt for now. But if you do jump into this growth stock, monitor its profitability closely. Over the next few quarters, expect to see its gross margins trend closer to where Rivian is today.
