There are few companies out there that have done as well for investors as Home Depot (HD 0.93%). Since its initial public offering in 1981, the home improvement chain has generated a total return of 3,297,000%. That monster gain would've turned a tiny $31 investment back then into $1 million today.

Today, Home Depot carries a market cap of $387 billion. And it reported $155 billion in trailing-12-month revenue. Could this retail stock, which has made its longtime shareholders extremely wealthy in the past, be your ticket to becoming a millionaire by 2030?

Short-term headwinds

As of this writing, shares of Home Depot trade about 10% off their peak and the stock has underperformed the broader S&P 500 during the past five years. There's some negative sentiment surrounding the business.

The company posted double-digit percentage revenue gains in fiscal 2020 and 2021, driven by strong household spending power and greater interest in taking on renovation projects amid the pandemic. But since then, the business has been dealing with a notable slowdown.

Same-store sales did rise 3.1% in fiscal 2022 (ended Jan. 29, 2023). They then dipped 3.2% in fiscal 2023. And the leadership team sees that key performance metric falling again by 2.5% in the current fiscal year.

Discouraged by higher interest rates and lingering inflationary pressures, consumers aren't as inclined to make big-ticket discretionary purchases. That's particularly true when compared to just a few years ago.

"We continue to see pressure on larger remodeling projects driven by the higher interest rate environment and continued macroeconomic uncertainty," Chief Executive Officer Ted Decker said on the Q3 2024 earnings call in November.

Long-term tailwinds

Home Depot might be dealing with some issues in the recent past, but the business is still in a favorable competitive position. For starters, the home improvement industry is large and fragmented, estimated to be worth $1 trillion annually. Home Depot only commands about 15% share of this market, even though it's the biggest player. This means it has a sizable runway ahead of it to take share from smaller retailers that don't have the brand recognition, inventory availability, or omnichannel capabilities that Home Depot does.

There are also industry tailwinds that are worth mentioning. In the U.S., the median age of a home in 2022 was 40 years. That was up from 35 years in 2012. Older homes unsurprisingly require more upkeep and maintenance, which supports durable demand for Home Depot.

And there has been a significant shortage of new homes being built in this country, with an inventory gap estimated to be as many as  7 million units. Lower supply disincentivizes people from moving to a new dwelling, again supporting renovation activity that drives sales for Home Depot.

Management also cites the fact that home prices in the U.S. are up significantly during the past five years. This equity can be tapped to fund home improvements and upgrades.

Don't look for huge returns

Home Depot's ascent during the past four decades has been unbelievable. However, this is a mature enterprise that isn't going to experience outsized growth anymore. In the past five years, earnings per share rose at a 7.7% annualized pace.

Consequently, investors should temper their expectations. Shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.4, which is 19% more expensive than the trailing-five-year average. That higher valuation makes it more difficult to achieve huge returns.

Of course, if you are able to invest a huge starting sum, then perhaps the stock can make you a millionaire in about five years' time. But to expect life-changing returns from a mature business like Home Depot with a smaller initial capital base in a short period is unlikely. Investors hoping to hit a home run should look elsewhere.