I've been a big fan of Rivian Automotive (RIVN -1.11%) for some time. The company is clearly capable of tremendous growth. When it went public in 2021, Rivian was generating annual sales of just $55 million. In 2024, annual sales surpassed $5 billion.
The best news is that Rivian's biggest days of growth are likely still ahead of it. But is there enough upside potential in the stock to turn you into a millionaire? The answer might surprise you.
Rivian sales could rise by 1,000% in the coming years
Rivian's historical growth trajectory has been promising. But it's not hard to imagine the company growing significantly during the next few years. Several major dominoes are set to fall during that time span. And even if there are some delays in management's timelines, Rivian's sales should grow significantly beginning next year.
Right now, there are two things I'm keeping an eye on when it comes to Rivian's growth trajectory.
The most exciting factor that will drive Rivian's long-term growth is its plans to release three mass market vehicles -- the R2, R3, and R3X -- by 2026. The bull thesis is simple here. The company has already proven its ability to scale its manufacturing capabilities enough to sell $5 billion in vehicles over a single 12-month period. The inability to achieve this feat alone has bankrupted any number of other electric vehicle (EV) companies. Not only was Rivian able to get its vehicles to market at scale, but it also produced cars that consumers loved. While Consumer Reports' editors generally panned its two current luxury models -- the R1S and R1T -- the owners of these vehicles strongly disagreed. According to a survey conducted by Consumer Reports, Rivian demonstrated the highest level of satisfaction and loyalty among its owners versus any other car brand, electric or otherwise.
RIVN Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
Rivian is clearly capable of scaling up production of vehicles that consumers love. If it can replicate that success with its mass market vehicles, expect sales to grow by 1,000% or more during the next decade. That's what happened to Tesla when it started shipping its first mass market vehicles, the Model 3 and the Model Y. Mass market vehicles -- generally defined as those costing $50,000 or less -- have way more demand potential than luxury models priced at $70,000 or more. If Rivian can execute, this EV upstart could quickly become a household brand.
But there's one other factor I'm keeping an eye on. And it may actually be a reason you shouldn't jump into this high potential stock.
One reason you shouldn't invest in this EV stock
Rivian has a promising future. And if you're willing to invest an ample sum, it's clear that shares could turn you into a millionaire by the end of the decade. The company's price-to-sales ratio is 70% lower than Tesla's. If there's a sizable sales ramp-up due to Rivian's new mass market models, investors should experience a double whammy of upside: a big jump in sales and a strong uptick in its valuation multiple.
Still, this stock isn't for everyone. Most notably, the company is still losing tens of thousands of dollars on every car it sells. So while the company's execution has been remarkable, and the future growth potential is well defined, it's not obvious that the company will survive financially until that point. These mass market vehicles won't hit the road until 2026 at the earliest. Some models won't reach customers until 2027. Put simply, there's still plenty of risk to this story.
If Rivian can make it through the next 24 months without massively diluting shareholders, there should be plenty of upside for patient holders. If you invest enough, this upside could turn you into a millionaire. But if you're risk averse or are simply unwilling to wait several years for an investment thesis to play out, Rivian stock isn't for you.
