Shares of major financial companies JPMorgan Chase (JPM -3.08%), Wells Fargo (WFC -5.00%), and Warren Buffett holding American Express (AXP -6.04%) were all down significantly on Monday, falling 3.8%, 5.1%, and 2.9%, respectively, as of 12:04 p.m. ET.
There wasn't much in the way of company-specific news today. Therefore, the sectorwide selling was likely due to comments made by President Donald Trump during an interview over the weekend.
Uncertainty over Trump's tariff policy has recently led to recession or stagflation fears; over the weekend, Trump declined to rule out tolerating a recession as a result of the protectionist policies.
As most know, recessions aren't positive for financial stocks. Thus, investors are de-risking ahead of a possible economic turmoil today.
NYSE: JPM
Key Data Points
"What we're doing is very big"
Financial stocks initially rallied upon Trump's election, likely due to the anticipation of deregulation and lower taxes.
However, a recession is typically bad news for financial stocks. During recessions, people are laid off from work, causing higher defaults on loans, and consumers broadly pull back their spending, which harms card activity and therefore "swipe fees" collected by credit card companies such as American Express.
Over the course of the past month, investors grew worried as several consumer sentiment readings fell sharply, projections of GDP growth fell, and jobs growth came in below expectations -- albeit still in positive territory.
At least some of that negativity has been due to fears over tariffs, specifically recent duties on some imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, which went into effect on March 4. While Trump delayed tariffs on certain goods covered under the 2020 USMCA trade deal with Mexico and Canada, even those exempted goods are expected to get tariffed on April 2.
Recalling his first term, investors had likely thought that if the stock market sold off enough or if the economic numbers got bad enough, the president would give in somewhat on tariff-related protectionist policies. However, in an interview on Sunday with Fox News' Maria Bartiromo, Bartiromo asked Trump if he anticipated a recession this year. He responded:
I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very big. We are bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing. And there are always periods of -- it takes a little time.
Investors are apparently taking these words to mean that Trump is willing to tolerate a recession this time in order to implement his tariff policies, with the goal of reshoring America's manufacturing base. Therefore, economically sensitive stocks are selling off. Unfortunately, these three financial stocks are in that camp.
But this sell-off could be an opportunity
Significant tariffs on imported goods, especially from America's neighbors, haven't really been implemented significantly in the past. So, there is a high amount of uncertainty as to the effects. This is why there has been such a big sell-off.
However, it's possible things are getting way too pessimistic, as the economy isn't in a recession now. Jobs are still growing, even at a slower pace than before. There are also aren't many economists that predict a recession as their base case for the economy looking forward. Moreover, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell gave a fairly encouraging take on the economy and inflation last Friday. That being said, he declined to offer an opinion on the back-and-forth policy on tariffs, but said the Federal Reserve would react appropriately when they are implemented based on how the economy reacts.
During times of uncertainty, markets tend to react quite harshly. However, for those with a long-term perspective, these types of sell-offs can prove to be excellent buying opportunities in quality companies.
Whether or not today's action represents such an opportunity is hard to say. However, it may be time to get out your shopping list. If the U.S. economy is able to weather tariffs without a big recession, it seems like it's probably a better time to be buying quality stocks at their current discounts than selling them.
