For fans of Microsoft (MSFT -1.32%), the now infamous write-off of its Nokia (NOK -3.00%) device unit is old news. The $7.5 noncash charge combined with a $780 million expense for restructuring sent a lot of investors running for the hills. Though not down much since sharing fiscal 2015 Q4 earnings on July 21, Microsoft's stock price is still trying to claw its way back to preannouncement levels.
But not everyone was dissuaded by Microsoft taking its "hit" last quarter. Boston Partners and its affiliates manage about $78 billion in assets across multiple investment classes. As was the case with many investors, Boston Partners likely heard the grumblings about Microsoft's plans to take the Nokia hit, but that didn't prevent it from adding more than 400,000 additional shares last quarter.
Of Boston Partners' billions of dollars under management, Microsoft now makes up its 10th largest holding. What is it Boston Partners sees in Microsoft? Likely a successful future in new, burgeoning markets.
What not to like
Whether it was suspected or not, taking nearly $8.3 billion in charges is always going to be a tough pill for many to swallow. But the Nokia write-off wasn't the only thing industry pundits found wanting in Microsoft fiscal Q4. Microsoft's legacy Windows OEM business took a hit -- again -- last quarter, declining 22% due to "PC market declines." Windows licensing sales also dropped thanks to PCs, but a more tolerable 8%.
Of course, none of the "negatives" from Microsoft's recent quarter was surprising, but that's neither here nor there for short-term investors. Perhaps most head-scratching was the negativity surrounding Microsoft's all-important cloud revenue. Its string of triple-digit cloud-growth quarters ended in fiscal Q4, rising a "mere" 88% -- or 96% factoring in the impact of currency.
A lot to like
In the long run, biting the Nokia bullet now should pay dividends down the line by not dragging down Microsoft's future mobile results. It could even be argued that the $7.5 billion noncash impairment charge is as much an accounting maneuver as an actual hit on long-term financial results. But for near-term investors, a charge is a charge.
What really stands out about Microsoft's future is performance in its "mobile-first, cloud-first" strategic initiatives, as well as strength in other areas including search advertising -- an after-thought for many -- and customer relationship management (CRM). Remember Bing? Microsoft's money-losing search alternative is beginning to pick up steam and now owns over 20% of the U.S. market. Bing's advertising revenues are also climbing: up 21% in Q4. Microsoft's Dynamics CRM also grew last quarter, more than doubling its "install base" and increasing revenue by 6%.
What really matters
But the cloud, and the associated Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions Microsoft offers via its Azure platform, is where the real opportunity lies. The notion that last quarter's 88% improvement year over year in cloud revenue was disappointing should be viewed as bullish. Microsoft's cloud performance has been so impressive for the past year and a half, give or take, that 88% growth is somehow negative? At a run rate of over $8 billion, Microsoft is a clear leader -- if not the leader -- in the fast-growing cloud market and you can be sure Boston Partners knows that.
And before pundits and investors pooh-pooh Microsoft's mobile efforts, there are actually a couple of bright spots. Smartphones continue to be a huge challenge, but that was always going to be the case with such entrenched competition. But tablets and hybrids also make up part of the mobile landscape, and Microsoft's Surface Pro 3 and less expensive Surface 3 appear to make inroads if this growing market.
Surface-related revenue more than doubled and is nearing $900 million, and the Surface 3 is still relatively new. It's safe to say a billion dollars in quarterly Surface revenue is on the horizon. That said, it's Microsoft's success in the cloud that will determine its future, which is why a big hitter like Boston Partners is on board -- and rightfully so.