The quantum computing investment landscape has shifted multiple times in 2025. To start 2025, the quantum computing stocks all sold off after having an impressive December 2024. Throughout 2025, momentum built and several quantum computing stocks posted impressive one-year returns. However, these stocks all sold off starting in October as the market's appetite for risk declined.
These stocks, IonQ (IONQ +7.81%) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI +1.83%), are down from their highs, and they are still well off those levels. IonQ is down around 40% while Rigetti is about 55% off its highs established in October. Will either of these two mount a comeback in 2026? Or is there more at play here?
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?IonQ and Rigetti Computing are taking two different approaches to quantum computing
Quantum computing can be performed in multiple ways. The most common is to cool a particle down to nearly absolute zero to slow its movements down enough to be useful for quantum computing. That approach is known as superconducting, and it's employed by Rigetti Computing alongside others in the industry like Alphabet (GOOG 0.51%) (GOOGL 0.54%) and Microsoft (MSFT +0.33%).
IonQ uses a different technique, known as trapped ion. The trapped ion approach is far more novel, and few companies have taken this path. However, IonQ is by far the industry leader in this approach, and it does have advantages over the more popular superconducting approach. The trapped ion approach is inherently more accurate than superconducting, based on how qubits are structured in the system. Quantum computing accuracy is a key concern in the quantum computing realm right now, and with IonQ using an approach that maximizes accuracy, it's a perceived leader in its field.
NYSE: IONQ
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IonQ has achieved 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, a measurement of how accurate a calculation is after passing through two operators. None of the sperocdnucting companies have managed to breach the 99.9% threshold, so IonQ's head start is a massive one. IonQ must maintain this lead, as the trapped ion approach has its drawbacks.
When compared to superconducting, the trapped ion technique has a far slower processing speed. When accuracy is of chief concern, speed isn't really a consideration. However, there could come a day when all copies have achieved acceptable accuracy levels, and speed becomes the focus. If all companies reach that threshold around the same time, then IonQ is destined for failure. Its only hope is to beat the competition to the punch and establish a foothold in the quantum computing market. If it can do that, then IonQ will be a successful stock pick.
Rigetti Computing is racing to ensure that it can close the gap with IonQ, but it is striking out. There isn't a huge market for quantum computers right now, and if there is, it's mostly limited to research contracts. As a result, winning these contracts is extremely important for long-term viability. One of the most important contracts for either IonQ or Rigetti to win is DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency). This contract will place the winner's hardware in use for the U.S. military -- a huge customer. Unfortunately for Rigetti, it wasn't selected for Stage B, while IonQ (and 10 others) were.
NASDAQ: RGTI
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That's a huge problem and causes me to lean more towards IonQ as being the stock to go with in 2026. However, their performance may be out of their control.
The market's risk appetite will influence their success
In reality, useful quantum computing is still years away, with many pointing towards 2030 as the start of commercially viable quantum computing. That's a long time to wait for real business to start. As a result, quantum computing stocks are highly risky. Investors must understand their risk tolerance, as these stocks can quickly rise and fall (as 2025 has shown). High-risk, high-reward investing isn't for everyone, and an ETF approach may be a better option.
The success of quantum computing stocks in 2026 will be tied to the market's appetite for risk more than the actual success of each company. If the market is feeling risk-averse (like it is in December), then these stocks may struggle. If it increases its appetite for risk as it did in the middle of 2025, both stocks could be great to own. I prefer to own companies that control their own destiny, and with each going up against the market's appetite for risk in 2026 and some stiff long-term competition (like Microsoft and Alphabet), the chances of either company being a successful investment are low. But if they work out, they will be monster winners.
