Rigetti Computing (RGTI +4.12%) has taken investors on quite the roller coaster ride in 2025. It entered the year on a strong note thanks to the quantum computing rally in December 2024. However, it crashed nearly 75% from its highs before January was over, thanks to comments from Nvidia (NVDA +3.80%) CEO Jensen Huang about useful quantum computing being a long way away.
Huang quickly pivoted from that stance, and the quantum computing startup stocks started to rally throughout 2025, before peaking in October. However, the market started to become risk-averse around that time, which caused quantum computing stocks to sell off again. Now, Rigetti Computing sits bou 60% down from its high established in October, although it's still up around 50% so far this year.
So, will Rigetti make another amazing comeback in 2026? Or will it be stuck in these lower ranges for a while?
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The real quantum computing winners won't emerge for a few years
We're in the early stage of quantum computing development, and knowing who the ultimate winner is not possible. There are private companies, publicly traded upstarts like Rigetti, as well as legacy big tech companies like Alphabet (GOOG +1.55%) (GOOGL +1.47%) and Microsoft (MSFT +0.22%) that are all developing quantum computing technology. With a crowded industry, it's likely that several of these companies (outside the legacy tech companies) will go bankrupt. This makes quantum computing a high-risk, high-reward sector of the market, which many may not like. If it's too risky for you, there are quantum computing ETFs, or you can invest in one of the legacy tech companies.
NASDAQ: RGTI
Key Data Points
However, if you're looking to take on a bit more risk in exchange for more upside, Rigetti Computing may be a stock you gravitate towards.
Rigetti isn't a large stock by market cap, as it's valued at around $7 billion. The quantum computing industry could easily be worth several times more than that, with McKinsey & Company estimating that the quantum computing market could be greater than $100 billion by 2035. That's a huge market that Rigetti Computing could capture if it's the first to reach viable quantum computing, making it at least a stock that investors should consider.
However, Rigetti is showing some signs of weakness that oculd present a red flag for investors.
Rigetti Computing must rely on outside funding
Because Rigetti Computing doesn't have a legacy business to fund its operations, it must win research contracts to stay solvent. One of the biggest contracts any of the quantum computing companies can win is from DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency). The winner of this contract will be in line to provide quantum computing hardware to the U.S. military. DARPA recently announced which companies made it to stage B, and Rigetti Computing was not one of them.
Familiar names like IonQ (IONQ +4.39%) and IBM (IBM +0.18%) made the list, which makes Rigetti's failure to advance from stage A to stage B frustrating for investors. IT's also why IonQ is only around 30% down from its all-time high versus Rigetti's 60%.
If you're looking to invest in quantum computing startups, you only want to pick the best. Most investors will never be able to understand the complexities and intricacies of quantum computing, so relying on programs like DARPA, which know what's going on, to screen out the winners from the losers is a smart idea.
Rigetti Computing's stock could make a comeback in 2026, but it will likely be based on the broader market's risk appetite. Rigetti may rise in tandem with its peers, but unless it can secure some major quantum computing contracts, I think there are far better quantum computing stock picks for 2026 than Rigetti Computing.
